The Economic Outlook: Post Lockdown Lift Off!
The economic outlook and why we will recover fast after lockdown is lifted!
The following slides and notes were taken from a presentation by Behavioural Economist Roger Martin-Fagg in June 2020.
I am sharing them here as I believe that this dissertation is extremely important for our business leaders to digest and understand.
Do not be swayed by the scaremongering and misleading tabloid media. The key facts in this presentation are urging you to prepare for a rapid return to high demand across our economy, with the obvious exceptions of travel and hospitality. There will be general high volumes of trade and the conclusions are that we, as leaders in the SME sector, need to be prepared, as in 9 months’ time our issues will be staff, premises, supply chain and inflation. We will have to manage higher than expected sales whilst automating our processes and finding new ways of working.
The following slides show that there is a huge amount of available funding in place for consumers and businesses to start spending as soon as lockdown restrictions are lifted. There is a risk of a secondary wave of C19 but this may be handled within the capacity of NHS and as long as only regional containment restrictions are put in place, the economy will bounce back in a V-shaped recovery.
The biggest caveat for us in the UK is that a successful Brexit deal is achieved with the EU. It is highly unlikely that Germany will allow a hard Brexit as they do not wish to see tariffs placed on the sale of German cars into the UK market.
So, we may be quite confident that this will be achieved, whilst the fear of a federal style EU seems to be fading away, we will nevertheless exit from what will become essentially just a free trade zone!
I hope these ideas will encourage all business leaders to remain cautious but optimistic as they plan to rebuild their capacity and their teams to work with the new normal conditions post C19 and post Brexit. There is much to be optimistic about and our people are looking to us to bring hope and inspiration for their future, so please digest the following information and be prepared for liftoff again very soon….the UK will bounce back stronger!